LODHA

Vijay Kumar Gupta | SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000020226) 📌 My View: Despite a robust operational update, the stock faced a sharp selloff on July 23 due to a large block deal. Fundamentals remain intact, but near-term volatility expected. Caution advised. 🔍 Key Fundamental Updates: ✅ Q1 FY26 Pre-Sales: ₹4,450 Cr – up 10% YoY, showing strong demand traction ✅ New Projects Pipeline: Added 5 projects with GDV of ₹22,700 Cr – bullish development outlook ✅ NCD Fundraising: ₹650 Cr raised via non-convertible debentures – liquidity boost for expansion ✅ Dividend: ₹4.25/share declared, record date – Aug 22, 2025 ✅ Board Meet: Q1 FY26 results to be declared on July 26, 2025 🚨 Block Deal Impact: – Over 14 million shares traded on July 23 – Stock dropped over 6% intraday – $165 Mn worth equity (1%) offloaded at a floor price discount – Temporary price pressure likely; long-term story remains strong 📈 Technical Analysis (Daily Chart): 🔹 Price Action: – Sharp bearish candle with heavy volume = distribution signal – Closed at ₹1,354, breaking below Ichimoku cloud and all short-term MAs – High momentum drop indicates institutional exit 🔹 Indicators: – CCI at -102 = deep oversold zone – TTM Squeeze shows fading momentum – CMF negative at -0.38 = outflow signal 🔹 Levels to Watch: – Support: ₹1,305 / ₹1,265 (OB zone) – Resistance: ₹1,390 / ₹1,404 (gap + breakdown area) 🧠 Analyst Note: The long-term growth narrative remains supported by steady pre-sales and a strong pipeline. However, the recent block deal has triggered supply-side shock. Avoid fresh long positions until price reclaims ₹1,390 with volume confirmation. Short-term traders may consider ₹1,305–₹1,320 zone for reversal signs.