Lupin Q1 FY27: Record Quarter, US Guided Lower, Biosimilar

Lupin Limited reported Q1 FY27 results for the June 2026 quarter on 6 August. Q1 FY27 numbers (consolidated): Revenue: Rs 8,277 crore, up 32% YoY, a 16th consecutive quarterly record; EBITDA Rs 2,464 crore, up 50%; margin 30% PAT: Rs 1,417 crore, up 16% YoY; EPS Rs 30.95; tax rate compressed PAT margin to 17.2% US: $366 million, up 43% YoY, 42% of global revenue; 6 ANDA approvals India: Rs 2,380 crore, up 13.9%; gross margin 74.6% Management guided US revenue to fall to $250 to 280 million per quarter as competition intensifies; Q1 was boosted by exclusivity and first-wave generics that normalise. Since results: USFDA approval for Modafinil (7 September); biosimilar target of $500 million over five years, Rs 500 to 700 crore capacity investment earmarked. Lupin [][***** shares closed at Rs 2,051.80 (15 Sep 2026, 03:58 PM IST), down 18 percent from the Rs 2,505 high, down 7.3 percent over the month. P/E 16.96; sector P/E 44.64; PEG 0.27. My view: the quarterly print is a record; the stock rightly sold the guidance. The Q1 US number ($366 million) will not repeat in Q2 or Q3; management said so. That makes the 30 percent margin also a peak-of-cycle US number; the 16x trailing is cheaper than it looks once the guided sequential decline is modelled. The structural story is real: biosimilars, GLP-1, India branded at 15 percent. The entry question is whether the US normalisation is already in the price at Rs 2,052. At PEG 0.27, the medium-term growth is not being paid for. Accumulate in the Rs 1,866 to 2,050 zone; Rs 2,180 to 2,250 the overhead resistance. Disclosure: Vijay Kumar Gupta, SEBI Registered Research Analyst, INH000020226, Vijay Gupta Advisory. SEBI registration and NISM certification do not guarantee performance or assure returns. Securities markets are subject to market risks. No holdings in the subject company.