MCX gains FPI access; trades at 55x trailing profit

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited hit a record Rs 3,479.80 on 25 September, a day after SEBI's board opened physically settled, non-agricultural commodity derivatives to foreign portfolio investors. Q1 FY27 numbers (consolidated): - Revenue: Rs 702 crore, up 88.1 percent YoY, down 21 percent QoQ from Rs 889 crore - EBITDA: Rs 494 crore; margin 70.4 percent vs 74.9 percent in Q4 - PAT: Rs 413 crore, up 103 percent YoY from Rs 203 crore, down 22 percent QoQ; EPS Rs 16.21 Volumes do the work. Futures turnover rose 47 percent YoY to Rs 59,674 crore a day and options turnover 266 percent to Rs 9.90 lakh crore. Q4 FY26 was a volatility peak; Q1 fell back. I would not model the FPI rule before a quarter of data. MCX [][***** shares closed at Rs 3,292.31 on 9 October on StockGro (NSE Rs 3,318.20), up 1.9 percent on the NSE that day and 4.7 percent below the 52-week high of Rs 3,481.40. On Rs 84,611 crore market cap, the stock is 51 times Q1 profit annualised and 55 times the last four quarters. My view: hold, not a fresh entry. At 55 times trailing profit the stock pays for a volatility-driven run; the FPI rule is not yet a number. I want the Q2 FY27 result to hold futures and options turnover near Q1 levels. No result date is announced; the SEBI limit is 14 November. Angel One and Anand Rathi see Rs 3,200 to 3,300 as support, and SBI Securities puts Rs 2,980 to 3,000 deeper. My exit is a close below Rs 3,200, the lower end of Angel One's range. I watch the Q2 volume lines, the SEBI circular setting the first FPI date, and options turnover. Disclosure: Vijay Kumar Gupta, SEBI Registered Research Analyst, INH000020226, Vijay Gupta Advisory. SEBI registration and NISM certification do not guarantee performance or assure returns. Securities markets are subject to market risks. No holdings in the subject company.