Crude at $80: Why Oil India and ONGC Could Benefit While OMCs Struggle

Crude at $80/barrel could create a clear divergence within the oil & gas sector. JM Financial expects Brent crude to average around $80/barrel over the next year, a scenario that could favour upstream producers while putting pressure on oil marketing companies. The Big Picture Upstream producers such as

and ONGC could benefit from stronger crude realisations, supporting profitability. On the other hand, oil marketing companies (OMCs) could remain under pressure as higher crude prices can squeeze margins and increase working-capital requirements. Stocks in Focus Oil India The company is particularly sensitive to crude realisations. Its Q1 FY27 oil production rose 11.4% YoY, while higher crude realisations helped EBITDA increase sharply. ONGC: Higher crude prices are generally positive for its upstream earnings through better realisations. OMCs: IOC, BPCL and HPCL could face margin pressure if crude remains elevated, particularly if higher input costs cannot be fully passed through.