ITC: DEFENSIVE STOCK HOLDS UP IN A WEAK MARKET

Limited gained approximately **2.6% during the week ended September 25**, placing it among the top weekly gainers in the Nifty 50. The performance becomes more interesting when compared with the benchmark. Nifty 50 declined around **0.9% for the week**, while volatility increased and India VIX ended the week 6.9% higher. This relative strength puts ITC on the radar. ITC's business is diversified, with cigarettes remaining a major earnings contributor while FMCG, hotels and other businesses provide additional exposure to domestic consumption. For the FMCG business, volume growth, pricing, input costs and margins remain important. In the cigarette business, taxation, volume growth and regulatory developments are key variables to monitor. **Technical setup:** After the recent weekly gain, the previous week's high becomes the immediate resistance reference. A sustained breakout above the recent high with strong volumes could indicate continuation of the upward move. On the downside, traders can monitor the recent consolidation zone as the first support area. A breakdown accompanied by increased volume would indicate weakening momentum. **What I am watching:** • Weekly high breakout • Volume confirmation • Cigarette volume growth • FMCG demand • Input-cost trends • Hotel-business performance • Dividend/cash-flow profile The broader market remains sensitive to crude prices, global yields and foreign flows. In that environment, ITC's relative performance is worth monitoring rather than looking only at the headline index movement. ITC's positive weekly performance while Nifty declined highlights relative strength. The next confirmation should come from sustained price action and volume. I have no holding or financial interest in ITC Limited at the time of writing.