Shares gained in morning trade on Thursday after Nomura retained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and maintained its target price at Rs 2,675. The brokerage said Lupin’s management remains confident of sustaining India business growth at 1.2–1.3 times the overall market growth over the medium term. The company also expects continued progress in complex generics, particularly in respiratory products, over the next three to five years, with key filings anticipated in FY27F. Nomura highlighted potential near-term upside from Lupin’s Apixaban 505(b)(2) opportunity. Management also expects double-digit growth in markets outside India and the US over the medium term. According to Nomura, Lupin expects to grow 20–30% faster than the broader Indian pharmaceutical market over the medium term. Cardiac, anti-diabetic and respiratory therapies, which together account for around 60% of sales, are expected to remain key growth drivers over the next five years. The company is focusing on deeper market penetration and improving field-force productivity to support growth. In the US, Nomura expects the current downturn to be short-lived, with revenues potentially surpassing FY26F levels within two years. However, near-term US revenue could decline sequentially due to increased competition in gJynarque (Tolvaptan), Lupin’s largest US product.

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