Bank Nifty Relief Bounce Ahead of RBI Policy

Bank Nifty has recovered from the 53,785 low to 55,128.40, a relief move after the recent decline. The index is still below the Falling Window resistance near 56,209, and both the 50 SMA (56,897) and 200 SMA (57,126) remain overhead and sloping lower. RSI at 41.50 is turning up from lower levels but is still below the midline. The Gartley's D point at 59,100 was defended earlier, and the index has since retraced a large part of that move. The RBI policy is due Wednesday. Per a PTI poll, a majority of experts expect a 25 bps repo rate hike, the first in about three and a half years, with retail inflation at 4.82% in August. A hike looks widely expected and appears to be at least partly reflected in recent price action, so the tone on stance and guidance may matter more than the rate decision itself. Resistance: 56,209, then 56,897 (50 SMA) and 57,126 (200 SMA). Support: 54,450, then 53,785 (recent low), and 53,020-52,640. Whether the bounce extends toward the Falling Window or fades back towards the lows is the key question this week. A close above 56,209 would be the first sign of a trend shift, while a break below 53,785 would put the 53,020-52,640 zone in focus. When a widely expected event arrives after a price decline, the reaction often depends on guidance rather than the outcome. Watch how price behaves at key levels.

has moved above its falling trendline, retested it, and closed today at 431.90 (+3.82%) with RSI at 66.01. The 395-400 retest zone is the level to track. Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. SEBI Registered Research Analyst — INH000025212. Source: RBI policy expectations: PTI, via MSN.