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Ashish Kumar

5th Apr 2025 · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Metal Stocks Plunge Amid Global Trade War Fears

Indian metal stocks witnessed a sharp sell-off on Friday, reacting to renewed fears of a global trade war sparked by US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs. The Nifty Metal index plunged 6.56%, its largest single-day drop since June 4, 2024, with all 15 constituents closing in negative territory. Leading the decline was Hindustan Copper, down 9.13%, followed by Hindalco, Nalco, and Tata Steel, all shedding over 8%. Analysts, while acknowledging limited direct impact from the US tariffs on Indian exports, are concerned about the substantial second-order effects. A potential global economic slowdown could significantly dampen metal demand and prices, severely affecting the earnings of major Indian metal companies. Emkay Global Financial Services highlighted the sector's vulnerability, noting its significant contribution to Nifty's FY26 EPS. They warned of potential stock price declines ranging from 26% to 43% for companies like

HINDALCO
,
VEDL
, Nalco,
TATASTEEL
teel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel, and SAIL, in a bear-case scenario. Emkay also forecasted a potential 30-45% weakening in steel spreads, based on historical profitability cycles.

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