IOC Ltd – “Cup Breakout with Volume Expansion: Energy Sector Strength Resumes ⚡”

Technical Analysis: Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has given a decisive breakout from a well-defined Cup formation, with price crossing above the neckline near ₹156–₹158 accompanied by a massive volume surge, confirming institutional accumulation. Elliott Wave Structure: The stock appears to be starting Wave 3 of a new bullish cycle after completing a long corrective structure (Wave 2) since late 2023. This wave often delivers the strongest price momentum. MACD Divergence: The MACD line has crossed above the signal line with positive divergence, reinforcing bullish momentum after months of sideways consolidation. AVWAP Analysis: The AVWAP anchored from the December 2023 peak acted as resistance multiple times but has now turned into dynamic support near ₹145, showing a clean trend reversal structure. Fundamental Snapshot: IOC continues to benefit from refining margin expansion, falling crude volatility, and robust retail fuel demand. The company has a strong ROE, consistent dividend payout, and improving profitability driven by downstream integration and capacity utilization. With government capex support and stable crude prices, earnings visibility remains solid. Summary: Sustaining above ₹158 could propel the stock towards ₹175–₹185 in the coming weeks, while ₹145 serves as a key support zone. Structure: Textbook Cup Breakout + Strong Volume Confirmation + Sectoral tailwinds = a high-confidence bullish continuation setup.