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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

19th Jan · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank: Breakout After Long Base – Wave 3 Rally Ahead 💹

UJJIVANSFB
1️⃣ Elliott Wave Structure – Strong Impulsive Move Starting The decline from the 2023 high looks like a completed Wave 2 correction. The rounded bottom formed through 2024 resembles a classic accumulation base. The recent breakout above ₹55–₹60 signals the start of a Wave 3 impulse, which is usually the strongest and most extended wave in Elliott analysis. 📌 Implication: This structure supports a rally toward the ₹90+ zone, matching the upside projection shown on the chart. 2️⃣ MACD Divergence – Early Bullish Momentum Signal At the 2024 bottom, price made lower lows, but MACD made higher lows, forming a bullish divergence. This indicates a trend reversal from bearish to bullish. The MACD crossover in early 2025 confirms that momentum has shifted upward. 📌 Implication: Momentum now favors further upside continuation. 3️⃣ AVWAP Acting as Strong Support The Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) from the 2023 peak has flipped from resistance to support. Price has respected this AVWAP multiple times during pullbacks, suggesting institutional buying at these levels. 📌 Implication: Holding above ₹50 keeps the bullish structure valid.

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