Crude oil prices remain stable this week as tensions between Iran and the US momentarily lessen following Donald Trump's suggestion that he does not plan to initiate military action. Nonetheless, this tranquillity might be brief, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are still high and could escalate at any time. Further backing for prices comes from the tightening global supplies due to shutdowns at Kazakhstan's Tengiz and Korolev oil fields, where fires affected power generators and stopped production. Kazakhstan, currently a significant crude oil producer with a capacity nearing 1.7 million barrels daily, owing to substantial capital expenditures in recent years, is projected to maintain both fields inactive for an additional 10 days. Moreover, the nation has reduced almost 900,000 bpd of production supplying the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal located on Russia’s Black Sea coast, because of recent drone attacks. These disturbances have led to a short-term supply constraint, aiding crude oil prices in staying robust despite wider market uncertainties. Fears of a trade war are escalatingas the IMF alerts that persistent “tit-for-tat” tariffs present a major risk to global growth in 2026. The Fund warns that rising protectionism may interrupt trade, diminish business confidence, and decelerate global economic activity. In light of increasing pressure, EU leaders are contemplating the activation of the “Anti-Coercion Instrument,” a policy framework aimed at countering economic influence from foreign governments. If enacted, it might prompt one-for-one retaliatory tariffs on American products, increasing the likelihood of a wider transatlantic trade conflict and intensifying uncertainty in the global economic forecast.