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Jeet B Bhayani (SEBI RA)

13th Aug 2025 · SEBI-Registered Analyst

In July, India's retail inflation dropped to 1.55%, the lowest in eight years, staying beneath the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target range of 2-4% for the fifth month in a row. This decrease, the slowest rise since June 2017, was mainly caused by a notable fall in food prices, experiencing their largest drop since at least January 2019 at 1.76%. The decrease in food prices, which fell more in urban areas compared to rural regions, was linked to robust monsoon rains, enhancing agricultural production. Although this low inflation rate favours a growth-focused monetary policy, it also heightens worries regarding possibly reduced farm incomes stemming from the consistent decline in food prices. The RBI had previously observed in August that the headline inflation was below expectations primarily because of fluctuations in food prices, particularly vegetables. Economists expect food inflation to stay low in the future, citing strong monsoon performance, sufficient reservoir capacity, and solid Kharif planting as influences that support consistent agricultural production and price stability. The most recent retail inflation figures follow the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee maintained the repo rate at 5.5% during its bi-monthly meeting in August. The RBI has maintained its GDP growth prediction for FY26 at 6.5%, while lowering its inflation estimate for that period from 3.7% to 3.1%. Nonetheless, certain economists view a higher likelihood of a rate reduction due to the inflation figure being lower than anticipated. The positive inflationary trend is viewed as beneficial for a lasting enhancement in consumption demand, and the drop in inflation is anticipated to support household buying power, especially for lower-income groups. Core inflation, excluding fluctuating items such as food and energy, remained steady at 4.1% in July 2025, reflecting stable demand conditions within the economy.

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