India to exceed 2030 climate target with up to 57% cut in emissions: Report

India is set to exceed its climate target of reducing the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, according to a new analysis by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and the Alliance for an Energy-Efficient Economy (AEEE). The analysis projects that India's energy sector emission intensity could decrease by 48-57% by 2030 compared to 2005. However, achieving the 2070 net zero target will require additional policy interventions, including carbon pricing, power pricing reforms, fiscal support for clean technologies, enhanced energy efficiency, and behaviour change initiatives. The findings suggest that India's 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) could include reducing the emissions intensity of GDP between 55% and 66% relative to 2005, with most scenarios indicating a 56% reduction, and increasing the non-fossil fuel share in installed power capacity to 60-68%. Countries must submit their next round of national climate plans for the 2031-35 period this year. India has not yet finalised its new NDCs. Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow at CEEW, said India has demonstrated climate leadership since the Paris Agreement and that decisive reforms across various sectors can significantly reduce its emissions. He added that a well-calibrated strategy should include an economy-wide emissions intensity target, sector-specific carbon budgets, and a push for low-carbon technologies and clean manufacturing. The CEEW-AEEE analysis found that a high-growth scenario aligned with the 'Viksit Bharat' vision would lead to 63% higher absolute emissions by 2070 compared to the business-as-usual scenario, but the emissions intensity of GDP would still fall by 3% relative to BAU due to greater adoption of efficient technologies and deeper integration of renewables in India's energy mix.