IOC

Q4 Results Expectation

Kotak Institutional Equities estimates that Indian Oil Corporation’s adjusted EBITDA could decline 22% quarter-on-quarter, though it may rise 5.6% year-on-year. The brokerage noted that the impact of sharply higher crude oil prices witnessed in March is likely to be more visible in Q1FY26. However, raw material costs are expected to increase due to elevated crude prices and the weakness in the Indian rupee. The brokerage further said that although reported GRMs may appear robust, marketing losses are likely to remain significant on both in-house refinery output and third-party product procurement. It also highlighted that LPG under-recoveries could widen despite lower volumes, owing to the steep rise in prices.