Apr'25 View on Dalmia Bharat Ltd

Dalmia Bharat is engaged in the business of Manufacturing and Selling of Cement. The company was started in 1939 and is the 4th largest cement manufacturer by installed capacity in India. • Dalmia Bharat’s Q3FY25 EBITDA came in 15% below our estimate. • For the company, market share loss continues and competition is heating up. • Dalmia Bharat’s operating performance remains inconsistent and we believe the underperformance is unlikely to reverse in the near term. • Management churn and recent operational disruptions are added concerns. • We estimate EBITDA/ton of Rs832/930/1,012 in FY25E/26/27E vs Rs744 in Q3FY25. Q3FY25 Earnings update: Positives: • Adjusted realizations was up 2.6% qoq led by price hikes in the key eastern region. • Seasonal tailwinds to lift margins in the near term. Negatives: • Volumes, at 67 lakh tons, declined 2% yoy (flat qoq). • Adjusted EBITDA of Rs744/ton decreased 35% yoy (our estimate was Rs793/ton). • We trim EBITDA by 5%/6%/9% for FY25/26/27E, factoring in lower volumes/margins.