After the War: Why Market Risks May Still Linger

Nifty is currently trading around 22,700, after recently hitting a low near 22,200. While the market is showing signs of a bounce, this move may not signal the start of a strong bullish trend. The recent correction from 26,000 levels was largely driven by global uncertainty, particularly the US–Iran conflict and rising oil prices. Now, even if the war situation stabilizes, markets may face a new challenge — tariff-related fears and trade tensions. From a technical perspective, the structure remains weak. The index is still forming lower highs, indicating that bullish momentum is not yet established. The zone of 24,000–24,200 is likely to act as a strong resistance, while 22,200 remains a key support. In the near term, a pullback towards 23,500–24,000 is possible, but sustaining above that zone could be difficult. This suggests that the market may continue to behave in a range-bound and volatile manner, rather than entering a clear uptrend. Overall, while a short-term bottom may be forming, the broader outlook remains cautious. A decisive breakout above previous highs may take time, especially with multiple global uncertainties still in play. 📌 In such conditions, it’s wiser to trade the range rather than chase rallies.