Crude Pressure, Diesel Duty Hike & Global Calm: What to Expect on Monday

With the US–Iran talks ending without any clear solution, global uncertainty has returned, but the real question for markets is whether the situation escalates further. If no bombing or major escalation happens overnight and talks continue, it can act as a short-term positive, as markets react more to fresh negative news than to existing concerns. In such a case, the fear factor may cool slightly and bring some stability in sentiment. For Indian markets, the biggest trigger remains crude oil. With no resolution in the Middle East, supply concerns are still active, keeping crude prices firm. This is negative for India as higher crude directly impacts inflation and overall costs in the economy. Alongside this, the government has increased export duty only on diesel—from ₹21.5 per litre to ₹55.5 per litre, a sharp hike of ₹34. This move mainly impacts refiners like Reliance Industries and Indian Oil Corporation by reducing their export margins, but it is a stock-specific impact and not a broader negative for the entire market. After a strong recent rally, Indian markets may see some pressure at the opening. If tensions remain unchanged, a gap-down of around 0.5% to 1% is likely due to rising crude and global uncertainty. However, if there is no escalation and talks continue, the market may open flat or slightly positive, or even recover after a mild gap-down, as absence of fresh negative news often brings buying interest. Overall, the market is not weak but cautious. Crude remains the key driver, while the duty hike impact is limited. The real trend will depend on how prices behave after the opening. If crude stabilizes, dip buying can emerge, but if crude continues to rise, pressure may persist.