Factors to Watch
Global Cues
US CPI came largely in line with estimates, but President Trump renewed pressure on the Fed for rate cuts, criticising Fed Chair Powell and JPM’s Jamie Dimon. Markets await tonight’s Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs, which could influence global trade sentiment.
Geopolitical tensions persist: Greenland reiterated it does not want to join the US, while China warned of retaliation after Trump’s Iran-linked tariff threats, risking China’s access to cheaper Iranian oil.
Japan’s 5-year bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2000, pressuring Asian currencies. The Yuan weakened further, supporting the Dollar Index.
India – Macro & Policy
The World Bank raised India’s FY27 GDP growth forecast by 20 bps to 6.5%, citing strong domestic demand as a buffer against US tariff risks.
Hiring rose 15% in December (Insights Tracker), signalling improving employment trends.
US–India trade talks between EAM S. Jaishankar and US Secretary Marco Rubio remain in focus.
Commodities & Assets
Metals at record highs: Silver, Gold, Copper, Tin and Nickel continue to outperform on supply constraints and demand optimism.
Brent crude jumped 2.5% to above $65/bbl, raising inflation and margin concerns.
Bitcoin gained 1.1%, trading above $95,000, indicating sustained risk appetite.
Market Setup – India
Nifty and Bank Nifty remain range-bound as focus shifts to earnings and the outcome of the US–India trade deal.
Smallcaps remain resilient despite consolidation in frontline indices.
Sensex expiry today; markets shut tomorrow due to BMC elections — keep positions light.
FIIs remain net sellers for the 7th straight session, with index shorts elevated at 92%.
Dollar Index strengthened for the second consecutive day.
Positioning
Key Longs: Metals
Key Shorts: Wire & Cable, Realty, High Beta stocks
Stocks to Track
Metals: