🌏 Global & Domestic Developments – India

1. U.S. Tariffs: India’s exports to the U.S. fell 12% YoY in September after the 50% tariff, with U.S. share down to 22% from 35.8%. Exports to Spain, UAE, China, and Bangladesh rose, signaling early trade diversification. 2. U.S. Retail Sales: Retail sales rose 0.5% in September, showing resilient consumer demand. This supports Indian IT and outsourcing sectors. 3. Supply Chain Realignment: The U.S. plans equity stakes in critical sectors to reduce dependence on China. India, as a “trusted ally,” could benefit in rare earths, minerals, and electronics supply chains. 4. India’s Trade Deficit: Widened to a 13-month high as imports grew 16.7% YoY, led by gold and silver. Exports rose 6.7% YoY, but high bullion demand may pressure the rupee and current account. 5. Chemical Imports – South Korea: India launched a probe under FTA rules to assess Korean chemical imports. Anti-dumping measures may support domestic manufacturing margins. 6. Overseas Direct Investment (ODI): ODI fell 50% MoM in August ($1B), but cumulative April–August FY26 ODI rose 29% YoY, showing long-term confidence despite short-term caution. 7. Employment Trends: Unemployment edged up to 5.2% in September, with rural softness post-sowing. Urban jobs at 6.8% may stabilize as industrial and services activity resumes. 8. Energy & Geopolitics: India will cut Russian oil imports and raise U.S. oil purchases by $15B, easing trade tensions and strengthening energy security. Overall Impact: Short-term pressures from tariffs and high imports may weigh on the rupee and trade balance. Medium-term outlook remains positive due to export diversification, domestic policy support, ODI growth, and stronger U.S.–India strategic ties, offering opportunities in energy, tech, and manufacturing sectors.