GRMOVER

🔹 What Drives GRM? Crude oil type Heavy/sour crude (cheaper) → higher GRM if refinery is complex Product demand Strong diesel/ATF demand → better margins Crack spreads Difference between crude price and product prices Geopolitical events Wars, sanctions, OPEC decisions Seasonality Summer travel → higher petrol & ATF margins 🔹 Types of GRM Benchmark GRM Market average (e.g., Singapore GRM) Reported GRM Actual GRM declared by a company (includes refinery complexity advantage) 👉 Complex refineries usually report GRM higher than benchmark. 🔹 GRM Cyclicality High GRM phase: Supply disruption, strong demand Low GRM phase: Excess refining capacity, weak demand This is why oil & gas stocks are cyclical, not linear compounders. 🧠 Investor Insight Rising GRM → earnings surprise potential Falling GRM → margin compression risk Long-term investors track: GRM trend Refinery complexity Ability to process discounted crude