Nifty ended September with a gain of 110 points despite sharp volatility. Historically, October has been tricky — 3 of the last 5 October series saw significant declines. This time, FII positioning is at an extreme: their long exposure has slipped to just 6%, the lowest on record. Interestingly, in September they also started light (8% long) but shorts failed to get much traction. Past patterns suggest that when FII positions are heavily skewed, Nifty tends to witness strong directional moves. Key drivers to watch in October: Q2 Results season (

INFY

HDFCBANK

in focus) RBI Policy outcome Festive demand trends US–India trade negotiations Overall, October is set up as a high-volatility, event-driven series with scope for large swings.

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