ITC Ltd.: A Defensive Giant Near Accumulation Zone?

, India’s diversified FMCG and tobacco major, has been under pressure since its all-time high of ₹528 in September 2024. On August 18, 2025, the stock closed at ₹406.30, down 1.25%. Concerns around GST 2.0’s proposed 40% sin tax and weak technicals have weighed on sentiment. Technically, ITC is trading below its 200-SMA with RSI around 45 and a weak MACD, indicating bearish undertone. Key support lies at ₹390, and if breached, the stock could drift toward ₹360. These levels, however, also mark potential accumulation zones. On fundamentals, ITC remains rock solid—debt-free, strong cash flows, ROE ~28%, ROCE ~36%, and a healthy dividend yield near 3.5%. Its FMCG segment continues to expand, agribusiness and paperboards add stability, and Hotels are recovering well. Valuation-wise, ITC’s fair price is estimated around ₹373, suggesting that at current levels (~₹406), the stock is slightly overvalued. The real value-buying zone emerges at ₹360–₹365, which aligns with technical support and provides a margin of safety. View: Despite near-term weakness, ITC remains a low-beta, defensive stock. Long-term investors can look at gradual accumulation near ₹390, with stronger buying opportunities if it slips into the ₹360–₹365 zone. Disclosure: I and my family do not hold ITC. SEBI Registered Research Analyst (Reg. No. INH000019309). Disclaimer: For information only, not investment advice. Please consult your advisor before investing.