Key Factors to Watch

Central Banks Bank of Japan (08:30–09:30 IST): Street expects a 25 bps rate hike. Risk of yen carry trade unwind remains, especially if Fed tightens liquidity. Japan inflation steady near 3% while yen stays weak versus USD. High impact for global risk assets and crypto. BoE: Cut rates by 25 bps citing growth concerns. ECB: Rates unchanged, maintaining cautious stance. Global Markets US: Record $7.1 trillion options expiry tonight, likely to drive near-term volatility. US equities bounced after three weak sessions as CPI hit a 4-year low, increasing expectations of policy easing. Asian markets opened mildly positive ahead of BoJ. Nike: Stock fell ~10% on continued China demand weakness. Commodities & Crypto Brent Crude: Range-bound at $59–60/bbl. Gold: Consolidating between $4,300–4,350/oz. Bitcoin: Below $86,000; BoJ decision remains a key trigger. Global Developments Israel–Egypt: Signed $35 bn gas deal, supportive for regional energy stability. TikTok: Agreed to sell US unit to American investor group (incl. Oracle), easing regulatory concerns. Indian Markets Indices remain range-bound but above key supports; position sizes likely lighter into year-end. Broader markets continue to underperform, reflecting underlying risk aversion. RBI intervention keeps USD/INR in 89–91 range; no clarity yet on India–US trade deal timing. Focus likely shifts toward budget-related positioning from next week. Flows & Positioning FIIs net buyers for 2nd day, but index shorts remain elevated at ~92%, highest in the series. Year-end unwinding and selective profit booking likely. Sectoral & Domestic View No clear sectoral leadership for positional trades. Corporate and government news flow expected to remain muted till year-end. Overall View Markets remain low-conviction and event-driven, with volatility around global policy cues; sustained directional moves likely post year-end.