Key Factors to Watch Today:
Global Markets: The Asian equity rally pauses after a seven-day run as US big-tech stocks witness profit booking in the AI space. Today marks the last trading session of 2025 for most Asian markets.
US Developments: Former President Trump reiterates his stance on firing Fed Chair Powell and reacts sharply to reports of an attack on Putin’s residence. FOMC minutes are due later today and will be closely tracked.
Geopolitics & Commodities: Ukraine–Russia tensions intensify even as dialogue continues. Crude oil holds gains near $61–63/bbl amid geopolitical risks and lingering concerns of a supply glut.
Metals & Crypto: Silver stabilizes after its sharpest one-day fall in over five years, though gold and palladium remain volatile. Bitcoin slips below $88,000, with increased redemptions weighing on sentiment.
FX Markets: The Dollar Index remains steady, offering limited directional cues.
Domestic Market Setup: The Santa rally momentum fades amid thin year-end volumes. Today is the last Nifty expiry of the year, increasing the risk of volatility as year-end positions are squared off.
Flows & Positioning: Activity remains more pronounced in metals than equities. FII shorts in index futures ease marginally to 86% from 89%, while FIIs sell in the cash market for the fifth straight session.
Nifty Technicals: Nifty slipped below the 20-EMA in the previous session. Key support lies at the 50-EMA near 25,832. Bias remains for light short positions. India VIX rebounds 6% after three sessions of decline.
Bank Nifty: Key support seen at the 50-EMA near 58,506. Avoid trades due to lack of clear setup.
Index Rejig: Nifty rebalancing to take place in the last hour of trade—autos may see inflows, while private banks could face outflows.
F&O Updates:
Last trading day in F&O for: