Key Factors To Watch Today
🌍 Global Cues
Fed rate cut probability ~80% for December keeps global risk sentiment upbeat.
US stock futures in green for the 5th straight day, indicating continuation of positive momentum.
Trump announces 0% income tax plan funded by tariff proceeds → pro-growth narrative but still early rhetoric.
US markets closed (Thanksgiving) → lower volumes globally; Asia opens mixed after 4-day rally → natural technical pullback & profit booking.
China upgrade: JP Morgan raises China to Overweight → supports global metals & EM sentiment.
US Dollar & Yields down → supportive for risk assets; DXY stays below 100 for 4th day, boosting EM flows.
🛢️ Commodities
Brent Crude flat near $63 → stabilised after Putin said US proposals could be basis for future talks.
Sunday’s OPEC meet → key for direction; no major supply cuts expected.
Bitcoin crosses $91,000 after 1 week → risk-on indicator.
Platinum at 1-month high.
Gold & Silver supported by supply tightness + rate-cut expectations.
Metals: Strong global cues + China upgrade = positive bias for metal stocks.
India Factors
After record highs, markets saw a healthy dip in Wednesday’s 2nd half → profit-booking-driven consolidation.
Market likely to consolidate due to:
Holiday-thinned global cues
Weakening rupee
Ahead of GDP data
Next week’s RBI MPC meeting
GDP Q2 at 4 PM today:
Street expects a beat above RBI’s 7% forecast → sentiment booster if confirmed.
📊 FII & Derivatives Setup
FIIs turned net sellers after 2 days of buying.
FII Index shorts reduce again:
Now at 81% vs 85% at the start of the December series.
Indicates less aggressive bearishness, supportive for dips.
Key Longs: Capital Goods, Commercial Vehicles, Select Metals