Market Wrap – 29 July 2025
Nifty closed at 24,821 (↑223 pts), BankNifty at 56,222 (↑367 pts), both hovering near their pivots (24,755 and 56,120 respectively). Action remained muted ahead of monthly expiry and the US Fed event. India VIX fell 4% to 11.52, reflecting extreme complacency.
CPR signals for both indices are tight, indicating possible volatility tomorrow. Nifty remains stuck between 24,700–25,000, with the 24,800 zone acting as a major tug-of-war area. BankNifty holds above 56,000 with resistance near 57,000.
Options data shows max Call OI at 25,000 and 24,800 for Nifty, and 57,000 for BankNifty. Max Put OI is at 24,800 (Nifty) and 56,000 (BankNifty). OI build-up suggests writers are defending expiry ranges aggressively, expecting consolidation — unless a breakout hits.
IV remains low, making options cheap. But tight CPR + low IV = possible sharp move if 24,788 (Nifty) or 56,400 (BankNifty) is taken out with volume. Watch for fresh OI changes and a rise in VIX to confirm momentum.
Outlook for 30 July:
Nifty bullish above 24,788 (targets: 25,004–25,161), bearish below 24,723 (supports: 24,663–24,506).
BankNifty bullish above 56,400 (targets: 56,573–56,850), bearish below 56,069 (supports: 55,944–55,667).
Expiry Plan: Stay nimble. Breakouts likely only if VIX picks up or major levels break. Till then, it’s a range-trader’s day.
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