Morning Market Outlook: Mixed Global Cues Ahead of Fed Policy

Global markets ended on a subdued note as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The S&P 500 slipped 0.09%, while the Nasdaq managed a mild +0.13% gain, reflecting a broadly flattish session. Markets are currently pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, keeping traders on the sidelines. Adding pressure to sentiment, JP Morgan fell 4.7% after warning of sharply higher 2026 costs, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index hit a fresh intraday all-time high, highlighting selective market strength. Global Indicators GIFT Nifty is down 26 points at 25,905, signaling a soft start. US 10-year yield eased by 2 bps to 4.18%. Brent Crude remains at $62, while the Dollar Index slipped to 99.2. Rupee strengthened by 20 paise, closing at 89.88 against the dollar. FII continued their selling streak for the 9th straight day, with short positions rising to 89% (from 88% earlier). Nifty PCR stays stable at 0.7, indicating balanced but cautious positioning. Domestic Market Setup The overall sentiment remains NEGATIVE, with mixed cues influencing early trade. After days of persistent outflows, FII activity continues to weigh on large caps, while DIIs' heavy participation in IPOs and block deals is squeezing liquidity, especially in mid and small caps. Major asset classes are trading in a narrow range as investors await clarity from tonight’s Fed FOMC meeting. Additionally, the US–India trade negotiations continue to act as an overhang, adding to uncertainty. Global debt markets remain under pressure, further limiting risk appetite. For today, traders are advised to remain light, as Nifty’s setup looks weaker compared to Bank Nifty. Opening Expectation GIFT Nifty signals a NEGATIVE opening of around 50 points. Key Levels to Watch Nifty 50 Futures Support: 25,800 Resistance: 26,100 Nifty Bank Futures Support: 59,000 Resistance: 60,000 Securities in Ban For Trade Date 10-12-2025: