News & Impact on India

1. Rising U.S. Consumer Delinquencies U.S. credit health worsened in Q3 2025 — auto loans (3%) and mortgages (1.3%) hit multi-year highs in serious delinquency; credit card defaults rose to 7.1%, and student loan delinquencies surged to 14.3% post-relief expiry. Impact: Slower U.S. consumption may soften global growth and curb Indian exports (IT, textiles, auto parts). Risk-off sentiment could spur short-term FPI outflows, though strong domestic demand cushions India. 2. U.S. Fiscal & Trade Trends The U.S. deficit narrowed to $219 bn in Oct on higher taxes, but spending pressures remain. Imports of containerized goods fell 7.5% YoY, showing weak demand. Talks to cut tariffs on Swiss exports and China’s fee waiver for U.S. ships hint at easing trade tensions. Impact: Better U.S.–China ties may stabilise supply chains, aiding Indian exporters, though weak import demand could weigh on FY26 exports. 3. Domestic Economy Stays Resilient Festive-led credit card spends jumped 15% YoY in Sept. Unemployment eased to 5.2% (from 5.4%), supported by rural jobs and rising female participation. Economists back sustained capex in FY27; govt plans “country-of-origin” filters on e-commerce. Impact: Firm consumption and rural recovery support growth. Public capex to aid infra, cement, and capital goods; localisation boosts Make-in-India prospects. 4. Political & Market Context Bihar elections’ second phase ends Nov 11; results on Nov 14. Asian markets opened higher on Wall Street gains and easing U.S. shutdown fears. Impact: Global optimism may lift Indian equities near term, but U.S. credit stress and trade slowdown remain risks. 5. Outlook Positives: Robust domestic demand, steady employment, strong public investment, stable macro base. Challenges: Slower global growth, possible FPI outflows, and fiscal-growth trade-off.