• US Trade Shift: US imports from Southeast Asia surged while China’s fell sharply. Impact: Near-term export competition for India; medium-term opportunity if supply chains diversify beyond China. • US Manufacturing Weak: ISM PMI below 50 for 10 months. Impact: Export demand risk, but softer commodity prices help India. • China–South Korea Ties: Trade cooperation strengthened. Impact: May divert some supply-chain investments away from India. • Venezuela Risks: Asset freezes and exposure checks raise uncertainty. Impact: Oil price volatility risk for India. • BOJ Hawkish: Possible further rate hikes. Impact: Mild EM flow pressure, India relatively resilient. • Global Minimum Tax: OECD tweaks 15% tax framework. Impact: Better certainty for Indian MNCs. • US Tariff Warning: Threat over Russian oil purchases. Impact: Key risk to Indian exports; diplomacy crucial. • Govt Scheme Rationalisation: Merger of overlapping schemes planned. Impact: Positive fiscal efficiency signal. • Transfer Pricing Easing: Rules may be relaxed from April. Impact: Improves investor and MNC sentiment. • Asian Markets: Mixed cues amid geopolitics. Impact: Near-term volatility; India structurally strong.

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