What RBI did: Repo rate unchanged at 5.50%. Stance kept Neutral. Growth forecast for FY26 raised to 6.8%. Inflation forecast cut to 2.6% for FY26. Why RBI paused: Wants to see the impact of earlier rate cuts and government tax measures. Global risks, especially US tariffs and weak exports, remain a concern. Inflation outlook (quarterly): Oct–Dec (Q3): around 1.8% Jan–Mar (Q4): around 4.0% Apr–Jun FY27: around 4.5% Market reaction: Equities: Mildly positive, no big swings. Rupee: Firmed slightly around 88.8/$ as RBI stayed active in FX. Bonds: Stable to slightly supportive with lower inflation outlook. Who benefits / risks: Banks/financials: No immediate change in lending rates. Consumption, auto, realty: Neutral to slightly positive if rates ease later. Exporters: Still face risks from tariffs and global slowdown. What to watch next: Upcoming inflation numbers — if they stay low, a rate cut in December becomes likely. US tariff developments. FPI flows and rupee movement. Bottom line: RBI pressed pause but left the door open for a December rate cut. Inflation is well under control for now, growth looks stronger, but global risks mean RBI is cautious.

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