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Pradeep Carpenter

26th Sep · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Trump’s Tariff Shock: Big Blow for Indian Exports

On Sept 25, 2025, Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs across pharma, consumer goods, and industrials, escalating trade tensions. 🔹 Key Tariffs Pharma: 100% duty on branded/patented drugs (from Oct 1). Only firms investing in U.S. manufacturing exempt. Consumer Goods: 50% tariff on cabinets & vanities, 30% on upholstered furniture, 25% on heavy trucks. Future Scope: Probes underway on robotics, machinery, and medical devices for possible new duties. 🔹 Impact on India Tariff Burden: 50% effective duty on Indian exports (25% base + 25% penalty for Russian oil purchases) — highest in decades. Exports Hit: India’s shipments to U.S. down 22.2% (May–Aug 2025), from $8.8B to $6.9B. Sectors Under Pressure: Textiles, gems & jewelry, pharma, chemicals, marine products, furniture. 🔹 Consequences Pharma majors may need U.S. facilities to avoid 100% duty. Export-heavy states like Gujarat face job risks. PLI-led investments slowing; competitiveness weakening. Trade talks stalled after 5 failed negotiation rounds. Bottomline: India faces one of the toughest trade environments in years, with U.S. tariffs reshaping supply chains and squeezing exporters. 📌 Stocks to Watch Pharma:

SUNPHARMA
, Dr. Reddy’s,
CIPLA
, Lupin Textiles: Arvind, Raymond, Welspun Gems/Jewelry:
TITAN
, Rajesh Exports Chemicals: Aarti Ind, Deepak Nitrite Marine: Avanti Feeds Furniture/Consumer: Century Ply, Greenpanel, Godrej Consumer

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