NMDC has several positive growth triggers going into FY27

NMDC has several positive growth triggers going into FY27. The company’s August iron-ore production rose 21% YoY to 4.07 MT, taking April–August production to 23.23 MT, up 26%, and management remains on track for its 60 MT FY27 production target. The bigger long-term trigger is diversification: NMDC plans to start commercial thermal-coal production at the Tokisud North mine in Q3 FY27, targeting up to 1 MT of coal sales in FY27, while aiming for non-iron-ore businesses to contribute around 20% of revenue by 2030. The company is also exploring coking coal, critical minerals and rare earth elements, with about ₹2,000 crore planned investment in FY27 for critical-mineral assets. Q1 FY27 revenue was around ₹6,795 crore, EBITDA ₹2,468 crore and adjusted PAT about ₹1,980 crore; EBITDA margin remained strong at 36.3%, helped by better iron-ore realisations and lower operating costs. NMDC is targeting 100 MT annual iron-ore production capacity by FY30, with medium-term capex expected to rise toward ₹7,000–₹10,000 crore. Another near-term positive is the proposed ₹1/share FY26 final dividend, with October 5, 2026 fixed as the record date, subject to AGM approval. However, investors should watch iron-ore prices, production execution, higher capex, commodity-cycle volatility and the ₹15,786 crore Karnataka tax exposure, which remains an important regulatory/financial uncertainty