NRB Bearings: defence is 4% of the story, not 40%

NRB Bearings Limited (NSE: NRBBEARING) grew Q1 FY27 revenue 19% to ₹370 crore. The stock is up 67% in a year, near ₹468, on the aerospace and defence theme. What happened Consolidated profit rose 15% to ₹36.8 crore. The standalone India business did better, with revenue up 14.7% to ₹328 crore, EBITDA up 21.7% and profit up 31.7% to about ₹35 crore. The industrial segment grew 34% and is now 14% of revenue, up from 11%. The company won a General Motors Corvette order for its new US plant. It has committed about ₹400 crore of capex. Why it matters NRB makes needle roller bearings, the small friction parts inside gearboxes. The same precision that goes into a car gearbox works for aircraft and defence platforms. That is the re-rating story the market is buying. My view Now size that story honestly. The aerospace and defence order book is about ₹50 crore, being ₹30 crore from the MTR acquisition and ₹20 crore of existing work. Against annual sales of ₹1,335 crore, that is under 4%. Management targets ₹300 crore of revenue and ₹90 crore of profit from this segment by FY31. Note the implied 30% margin, nearly triple what the company earns today. It is a fine prize, but five years away. One more signal. Consolidated profit grew 15% while standalone grew 32%. The new units are costing money before they earn it. At 35 times earnings after an 83% rise in six months, today's price already assumes the plan works. What I am watching Q2 FY27 results in November, the defence order book moving past ₹50 crore, and the US plant ramping up. On the chart, ₹519 is the high and ₹420 is support. My stance: Hold. Buy on dips near ₹420. The defence money arrives after FY29. Disclosure: I do not hold a position in NRB Bearings Limited at the time of writing. This is not investment advice.