Welspun Corp: real earnings behind the headline profit

Welspun Corp Limited (NSE: WELCORP) closed at ₹2,606 on 1 October 2026, up 205% in one year from ₹854. Its global order book stands at a record USD 4.7 billion, roughly ₹39,500 crore. What happened Q1 FY27 net profit was ₹1,048 crore, up 200%. But ₹548 crore came from selling a stake in EPIC, its Saudi associate. Strip that out and underlying profit was ₹499 crore, up 42%. The operating story is real. Sales rose 15% to ₹4,081 crore. Operating profit grew 32% to ₹692 crore. EBITDA margin was 17%, the best in at least 13 quarters. On 25 September, Welspun Tubular LLC won its largest order ever, USD 412.5 million, about ₹3,600 crore. Pipes will be made at its Little Rock mill and delivered in FY28 and FY29. Why it matters Welspun makes large-diameter steel pipes that carry oil, gas and water across America. Energy infrastructure spending in the US is at a multi-decade high, and Welspun has a manufacturing plant inside it. My view Five year CAGR: sales 19%, EBITDA 23%. Return on capital employed is 23% and FY26 operating cash flow was a record ₹3,204 crore. These are real, not one-off, numbers. At 30 times reported earnings it looks reasonable. Strip the EPIC gain and the multiple rises to 39 times. Against a 10-year median P/E of 18 times, it is not cheap. The risk is lumpiness. Pipe orders hinge on big projects that can slip. This record order flows into revenue only from FY28. Borrowings doubled to ₹2,355 crore in FY26. What I am watching Q2 FY27 results, due in late October, underlying margin above 12%, and new US orders. On the chart, ₹2,052 is the 52-week low and ₹2,900 is the high. My stance: Hold. Better than STL on fundamentals. Add on dips below ₹2,200. Disclosure: I do not hold a position in Welspun Corp Limited at the time of writing. This is not investment advice.