After a Weak FY26, Pipe Firms Eye Sequential Q4 Rebound

Listed plastic pipe makers are seeing sentiment improve after a volatile FY26, as PVC prices recover from multi-quarter lows and dealer restocking picks up. While Q3FY26 was marred by inventory losses and subdued demand, recent price trends and China’s proposed export subsidy cuts are expected to support realizations and market share for Indian players. With Q4 seasonally strong for plumbing and agriculture pipes, management commentaries across firms remain upbeat, though earnings upgrades may take time. Sector Dynamics - PVC Prices: - Q3FY26 average: ₹71.96/kg. - Q4FY26 so far: ₹73.87/kg, signaling recovery. - China’s plan to curtail export subsidies (from April) could lift domestic prices by 5–10%, reducing low-cost import pressure. - Inventory Trends: - Q3: Dealers held below-average inventory, leading to destocking and losses. - Q4: Rising PVC resin prices triggered strong restocking, per Yes Securities checks. Company Performance (Q3FY26) -

: +17% YoY volume growth. - : +16% YoY growth. - Prince Pipes, , : Flat or negative volumes. Management Guidance - Supreme: 5–17% volume growth FY26. - Astral: Reaffirmed double-digit growth. - Prince Pipes & Apollo: Target high double-digit growth in FY27. - Q4 expected to be seasonally strong for plumbing and agriculture segments. Stock Performance & Risks - Sector stocks (ex-Astral) down 12–26% in past six months. - Delays in anti-dumping duty and BIS norms enforcement have blurred earnings visibility. - Competition risk persists, but domestic price recovery offers near-term support. Outlook & Valuation - Sequential revival in Q4FY26 likely, aided by PVC price recovery and restocking. - Meaningful earnings upgrades expected only gradually, contingent on sustained demand and trade protection measures. - Near-term sentiment hinges on policy clarity, but structural growth drivers in plumbing, agriculture, and adjacencies remain intact.