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MNC RESEARCH

1 hour ago · SEBI Registration INH000023472

Why Market Is Correcting - 6 Key Reasons 👇

1. Crude Oil Prices Surging Again: Brent crude surged above $105/barrel due to US-Iran conflict and risk to Strait of Hormuz (20% of world oil passes through it). India imports 85-90% of its crude, so higher oil = higher import bill, higher inflation and pressure on fiscal deficit. Now cooled to ∼$97-100 but still elevated. 2. US Bond Yields at 20-Year High: US 10-year yield jumped to 5.3%, highest since 2002. Risk-free return in US is now more attractive, so global money moves out of emerging markets like India into US dollars. 3. Rupee at All-Time Low: Rupee slipped to 96.31 per dollar, weakest in 2 months. Weaker rupee increases import cost and makes FII returns negative in dollar terms. RBI is intervening via PSU banks to defend it. 4. Relentless FII Selling: FIIs sold Rs 37,786 Cr in just last 2 weeks (Sept 21 - Oct 1) and over Rs 2.15 lakh Crore / $23 billion in 2026 so far. They sold Rs 10,148 Cr in a single day on Sept 30. DII buying is supporting, but not enough to offset. 5. RBI Policy & Over-regulation Concerns: RBI hiked repo to 5.50% and shifted stance to "calibrated tightening", signaling no near-term rate cuts. 10-year G-Sec yield heading towards 7.5%. Plus increased compliance, higher margins, weekly expiry curbs, and tight surveillance by SEBI/RBI have reduced speculative liquidity. 6. Geopolitical & Domestic Risks: US-Iran-Israel tensions unresolved, monsoon deficit of 13% with drought in Maharashtra, and Q1 FY27 earnings weak. Nifty fell 6.1% in September - worst September since 2018 and 8 straight weeks of fall, longest in 25 years.

#MacroViews
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