Macquarie India Capital Markets FY26-FY30 Outlook

According to Macquarie Research, India’s capital markets revenue pool is projected to grow at a 16% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between FY26 and FY30, propelled by accelerating household financialization, expanding product offerings, and deeper market participation. Out of the approximately ₹44.19 lakh crore ($500 billion) that Indians save annually in financial assets, nearly half remains in cash and bank deposits, presenting a massive opportunity for conversion into market-linked instruments. Supported by rising GDP per capita and formalization of savings, retail participation has surged—reflected in demat accounts expanding from 21 million in FY13 to nearly 225 million in FY26. Despite this rapid growth, the market remains significantly underpenetrated, with active NSE investors representing roughly 3% of the population and mutual fund penetration standing at just 4%. Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) have emerged as a primary growth engine for retail inflows, with annual contributions jumping from under ₹1 lakh crore ($11.32 billion) in FY19 to approximately ₹3.5 lakh crore ($39.60 billion) in FY26, consistently averaging over ₹30,000 crore ($3.39 billion) monthly. Consequently, stock exchanges are forecast to achieve an overall annual revenue CAGR of 13% through FY30, supported by 12% growth in transaction revenues and 15% in non-transaction streams like data, index products, listings, and connectivity services. While near-term structural adjustments—such as the implementation of the Closing Auction System—may temporarily weigh on trading and margin volumes over a two-quarter horizon, the multi-year trajectory points toward robust structural expansion in India’s wealth management and market infrastructure ecosystem.